Australia’s swimmers are on course to win a minimum six golds and up to 13 other medals at the Paris Olympics. Editor at Large Louise Evans crunches the numbers.
Australia’s medal haul in the pool should get off to a flying start on day one of the Olympics courtesy of two of the biggest stars of the entire Australian team – freestyle Amazons Ariarne Titmus and Mollie O’Callaghan.
Swimming always kickstarts the Games and being a strong swimming nation helps set the tone for Australia’s success across the rest of the Olympics.
Australian swimmers are ranked to win a minimum six golds across the nine-night program plus they have strong medal chances in 13 other events. (Details below)
The team will want to match or do better than its 2020 Tokyo Games haul where it produced its best performance in Olympic history with nine gold medals – eight won by the women. (USA won 11 gold in Tokyo). Australia also won 10 other medals in the Tokyo pool, three silver and seven bronze for a total of 18 medals.
On form and ranking, Australia has 19 medal chances in Paris across the 28 individual events – 14 each for women and men – plus seven relays.
The minimum six golds slated for Australia in Paris are predominantly anchored by Titmus in the 200m and 400m freestyle and 4x200m freestyle relay, O’Callaghan in the 100m or 200m freestyle and 4x100m relay and Kaylee McKeown in the 100m or 200m backstroke. Titmus, O’Callaghan and McKeown all have three individual events plus the relays.
A lot will depend on what happens on day one when belief and hope reign supreme. The three possible golds on night one are expected to come from Elijah Winnington or Sam Short in the men’s 400m freestyle, Titmus in her 400m freestyle and the women’s 4x100m freestyle relay spearheaded by O’Callaghan and Shayna Jack.
If these three events deliver gold for Australia on day one – it will be game on.
Australia also has strong medal chances in an additional 13 events (Details below).
Australia’s main dangers are the gun freestylers and backstroker in the USA team, with a sprinkling of threats from a few other countries including China.
The five big internationals to watch are rising Canadian sensation Summer McIntosh, the US trio of Katie Ledecky, Regan Smith and Caeleb Dressel and French hero Lyon Marchand.
All eyes will be on US legend Ledecky, 27, the seven-time Olympic gold medallist and the world’s best distance swimmer for a decade. She’ll be hard to beat in the 400m, 800m and 1500m freestyle but Titmus should be with her stroke for stroke.
America’s new 100m backstroke world record holder Smith, 22, will be up against McKeown in the 100m and 200m backstroke. Smith reclaimed the world mark at the June US trials, clocking 57.13 and taking 0.28 seconds off McKeown’s previous record. Smith is also doing the 200m butterfly.
US sprint prince Dressel, the reigning Olympic champion in the 50m and 100m freestyle plus the 100m butterfly, is back after an eight-month “mental health” lay-off. Dressel is a tremendous competitor as are his Australia’s freestyle rivals Cam McEvoy (50m) and Kyle Chalmers (100m). Dressel will be in the 100m relay too.
Perhaps the biggest danger to Australia’s gold medal tally is rising Canadian teenager Mcintosh, 22, who can swim five individual events in Paris. She’ll take on Titmus in the 200m and 400m freestyle plus she’s in both the 200m and 400m medleys against McKeown, and she’s also set to swim the 200m butterfly.
There’ll be a lot of hot air around French champion Marchand at the Paris pool. Trained by Michael Phelps’ former coach Bob Bowman, the titan from Toulouse is the 400m individual medley world record holder. He’ll also swim the 200m medley and the 200m breaststroke and butterfly.
We’ve crunched the numbers across the nine-day swimming program and this is how Sportshounds sees Australia’s medal chances unfold day-by-day in the Paris pool.
Saturday July 27 Night One
20:42 (04:42 AEST Sunday) 400m freestyle men – Elijah Winnington & Sam Short.
Elijah Winnington & Sam Short are both ranked in the world top three. Winnington, 23, is the world No2 and the world silver medallist. Short, 20, is the world No3 and 2023 world champion. Both Winnington and Short will back up for the 800m freestyle final on Tuesday.
Major rival: German world No1 Lukas Martens, 22, world bronze medallist.
20:55 (04:55 AEST Sunday) 400m freestyle women – Ariarne Titmus & Lani Pallister.
The 400m freestyle will set the scene for the big three-way battle in Paris between dual Olympic freestyle champion Ariarne Titmus, USA’s seven-time Olympic champion Katie Ledecky and rising Canadian teenage sensation Summer Mcintosh. The 400m Freestyle is also the first of three individual events for Titmus. Titmus, 23, is world record holder and Olympic champion in this event. Fellow Australian Lani Pallister, 22, is the world No6 and an Olympic debutant who is the daughter of 1988 Seoul Olympic freestyle finalist Janelle Elford.
Major rivals: Ledecky, 27, (USA) world ranked No2 and Olympic silver medallist. McIntosh, 17, (CAN) world ranked No3 who finished fourth at the Tokyo Olympics aged 14.
21:37 (05:37 AEST Sunday) 4x100m relay women – Mollie O’Callaghan, Shayna Jack, Meg Harris, Bronte Campbell, Olivia Wunsch, Emma McKeon.
Australia are the defending Olympic champions, the 2023 world champions and world record holders. Pray they don’t break and get disqualified. The USA, Canada and China will also be vying for podium places.
Monday July 29 Night 3
21:48 (05:48 Tuesday AEST) 200m freestyle Ariarne Titmus & Mollie O’Callaghan.
Titmus, 23, Dean Boxhall coach, 1min52.23s world record holder, Tokyo Olympic champion.
O’Callaghan, 20, Dean Boxall coach, 1min52.48s world ranked No2.
Major rivals: Summer McIntosh, 17, (CAN) 1min53.69s world ranked No3. Both Australians are currently over one second clear of McIntosh. Siobhán Haughey, 26, (Hong Kong) 1min54.52s world ranked No5, 2024 world champion and Tokyo Olympic silver medallist.
At the June Olympic trials Titmus took 0.6 seconds off the world record set by O’Callaghan at the 2023 world championships. Titmus said the record reflected the training she’d been doing with O’Callaghan under coach Boxall. “When you have someone like Dean in your corner you just beat everyone. He has the most passion and pride. I’ve been with Dean since I was 15 and I have grown up beside him. He’s more than just my coach, he’s my best friend. It’s cool to have him on the journey. For him to show his passion like that, it’s exactly who he is. He is not putting it on. I feel special to have him as my coach.” O’Callaghan said she was still learning how to swim the 200m freestyle and also paid tribute to Boxall as “an amazing coach”. “I couldn’t get to this stage without him,” she said.
Tuesday July 30 Night 4
20:57 (04:57 Wednesday AEST) 100m backstroke Kaylee McKeown
McKeown, 23, Michael Bohl coach, 57.41s world ranked No2, Olympic champion.
Major rival: Regan Smith, 22, (USA) 57.13s world record holder, Olympic bronze medallist. Smith reclaimed the world record at the June US trials, clocking 57.13 and taking 0.28 seconds off McKeown’s previous mark. “It was part of the plan,” Smith said after reclaiming the record she first held in 2019. Smith also won Olympic bronze behind McKeown in Tokyo. At the Tokyo Olympics McKeown won three golds in the 100m and 200m backstroke and the medley relay. In Paris McKeown is adding a third individual swim to her program with the 200m individual medley.
21.03 (05:03 Wednesday AEST) 800m Freestyle Elijah Winnington and Sam Short
Winnington, 23, coach Dean Boxall, 7min42.94 world No2 and world silver medallist
Short, 20, coach Damien Jones, 7min43.98 world No5
Major rivals: Daniel Wiffen, 22, (IRL), 7min40.94 world No1 and world champion. Gregorio Paltrinieri, 29, (ITA) 7min42.98 world No3, world bronze medallist and Olympic silver medallist.
Winnington swam slightly slower at the June trials winning in 7min44.90, while Short, who was suffering from gastro and weight loss, was second in 7min46.52. Once fit and firing, Short is capable of medalling in the 400m, 800m, and 1500m as he did at the 2023 world championships with 400m gold, 800m silver and 1500m bronze.
Wednesday July 31 Night 5
20:30 (04:30 AEST Thursday) 100m Freestyle Mollie O’Callaghan & Shayna Jack
O’Callaghan, 20, Dean Boxhall coach, 52.33s world ranked No2, 200m freestyle world record holder, dual Tokyo Olympic relay champion in 100m freestyle and medley.
Jack, 25, coach Dean Boxhall, 52.65s world ranked No5, 2024 world bronze medallist.
Major rivals: Marrit Steenbergen, 24, (NED) 52.26s world ranked No1, 2024 world champion. Siobhán Haughey, 26 (Hong Kong) 52.55s world ranked No 4, 2024 world silver medallist, Tokyo Olympic silver medallist.
O’Callaghan and Jack are taking over the 100m mantle from five-time Olympic gold medallist Emma McKeon and four-time Olympic champion Cate Campbell. For O’Callaghan swimming in Paris is about revenge after missing individual selection in Tokyo while for Jack it’s about redemption after coming back from a two-year doping ban for unintentionally ingesting the banned bodybuilding drug ligandrol. For both swimmers Paris is their first Olympics as individual swimmers. At the trials O’Callaghan said she was not happy with her time and promised there was more to come.
22.08 (06:08 AEST Thursday) 200m Breaststroke Zac Stubblety-Cook
Stubblety-Cook, 25, coach Vince Raleigh, 2min07.40 world No4, Olympic champion.
Major rivals: Matt Fallon, 21, (USA) 2.06.54 world No1 rising star. Two Japanese swimmers Ippei Watanabe 2min06.94 world No2 and Yu Hanaguruma 2min0707 world No3. China’s 2min05.48 world record holder Qin Haiyang, 25, was one of 23 Chinese swimmers who tested positive to the banned substance trimetazidine (TMZ) before the Tokyo Olympics. They were allowed to compete because the samples were deemed “contaminated”. Qin also tested positive to the banned steroid clenbuterol in 2016-17. His best time this year of 2min08.87 ranks him outside the world top 10. China’s current number one is world champion Dong Zhihao, 18, whose 2min07.94 ranks him world No6.
At the June Australian trials Stubblety-Cook said he’s yet to swim his best race. “I haven’t done a personal best in two years and I’d like to have my best race in Paris. Going in as the Olympic champion in a very different circumstance but I’m happy to rise to the occasion.”
22:15 (06:15 AEST Thursday) 100m freestyle Kyle Chalmers
Chalmers, 25, 47.63s world No10, Olympic silver medallist, 2023 world silver medallist.
Major rival: Zhanle Pan, 19, (CHN) 46.60s world record holder, world No 1, world champion. Many other swimmers from USA, Romania, France and Hungary,
Despite his current world ranking, Chalmers has never finished worse than second at a major meet, plus he’s a tremendous competitor who reacts well to a challenge.
Thursday Aug 1 Night 6
20:30 (04:30 Friday AEST) 200m butterfly Elizabeth Dekkers
Dekkers, 19, Vince Raleigh coach, 2min.05.20s world No.3, Olympic rookie
Major rivals: Summer McIntosh, 17, (CAN) 2.04.33 world No1. Regan Smith, 22, (USA) 2min.04.80s, world No2, Olympic silver medallist.
Dekkers is a rising star who missed selection for the Tokyo Olympics by 0.14s. That disappointment gave her the hunger to train-on for Paris. “I wouldn’t be here if that had not happened three years ago,” Dekkers said at the trials. “Missing the team made me realise how much I love swimming. “The goal is to go to Paris and be competitive. I’ve got more in me for Paris.”
21:48 (05:48 Friday AEST) 4x200m freestyle relay – Ariarne Titmus, Mollie O’Callaghan, Lani Pallister, Brianna Throssell, Shayna Jack and Jamie Perkins.
Australia won bronze in Tokyo behind China’s gold and USA silver. Titmus and O’Callaghan should be hard to beat this time round.
Friday August 2 Night 7
20:30 (04:30 Saturday AEST) 50m freestyle Cameron McEvoy
McEvoy, 29, coach Tim Lane, 21.23s world No1 and world silver medallist.
Major rivals: Benjamin Proud, 29, (GBR) 21.25s world No2, world bronze medallist. Vladyslav Bukov, 21, (UKR) 21.28s world No3, world champion. Caeleb Dressel, 27, (USA) 21.41s world No4, Olympic champion.
McEvoy is on a mission at his fourth Olympics to become the first Australian male to win an Olympic 50m medal. He quit swimming following his third Olympics in Tokyo but came back after dramatically changing his training to win the 2023 world championships and then the silver 50m medal in the Doha world championships this year. He’s the only Australian male with a No.1 ranking in any event, based on best times this calendar year. “About 18 months ago, my goal was to just come back, give this new training approach a go and see what happens,” he said after winning the trials. “What I’ve done so far has just obliterated any expectations I had. I’m most excited to try and get this done (medal at Paris) and then compile what I’ve learned and just push it out there into the public”.
20:39 (04:39 AEST Saturday) 200m backstroke Kaylee McKeown
McKeown, 23, Michael Bohl coach, 2min03.14s world record holder, Olympic champion.
Major rival: Regan Smith, 22, (USA) 2min03.99s world No2, Olympic silver medallist.
This will be the second of potentially three individual events for McKeown including the 100m backstroke and 200m individual medley. At the Australian trials McKeown won the 200m backstroke in 2min03.30 and was pleased with the time. “I’m happy to still be swimming around that time, not many people in the world are doing that at the moment,” McKeown said. “You’re putting your heart on the line, you’ve done months worth of hard training … and you just want to do yourself proud.”
Saturday August 3 Day 8
20:49 (04:59 AEST Sunday) 200m individual medley Kaylee McKeown
McKeown, 23, Michael Bohl coach, 2.06.53 world No1.
Major rivals: Kate Douglass, 22, (USA) 2min06.79s 22 world No2, world champion, Olympic bronze medallist. Summer McIntosh, 17, (CAN) 2min.07.06s world No3.
McKeown was ambitious to add this event to her Olympic program and follow in the famous wake of Beijing 2008 Olympic champion Stephanie Rice and 1972 Munich Olympic champion Shane Gould. McKeown describes the event, potentially her third individual medal, as a “bit of fun” despite being disqualified at the 2023 world championships for an illegal turn.
21:09 (05:09 AEST Sunday) 800m freestyle Ariarne Titmus & Lani Pallister
Titmus, 23, Dean Boxhall coach, 8min14.06s world ranked No2, Olympic silver medallist.
Pallister, 22, Michael Bohl coach, 8min18.46. world ranked No5, Olympic rookie.
Major rivals: Katie Ledecky, 27, (USA) 8min12.95s world ranked No1, three-time consecutive 800m Olympic champion, world record holder. Simona Quadarella, 25, (ITA) 8min17.44s world ranked No3, Olympic bronze medallist, 2024 world champion.
This is the third individual event for Titmus who was disappointed with her winning 800m swim time at the trials. She was hoping to clock a personal best. All the focus will be on Ledecky who will be vying to win an unprecedented fourth 800m Olympic title having already won the 800m in London 2012, Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020. Pallister is also capable of finishing on the podium.
21:33 (05:33 AEST) mixed 4x100m medley relay
Who will swim what leg will depend on results from the past seven days. There’ll be a lot of number crunching to determine Australia’s line-up and who to pitch against the rest of the world.
Sunday August 4 Day 9 and final day
18:30 (02:30 AEST) 50m freestyle Shayna Jack
Jack 25, coach Dean Boxhall, 23.99 world No4, world championship fourth
Major rivals: The world top three ahead of Jack are also the medallists from the 2024 world championships – Sarah Sjoestroem, 30, (SWE) 23.69 world No1, world champion; Kate Douglass, 22, (USA) 23.91 world No2, world silver medallist. Katarzyna Wasick, 31, 23.95s world No3, world bronze medallist.
For Jack the Paris Olympics is about redemption after coming back from a two-year doping ban for unintentionally ingesting the banned bodybuilding drug ligandrol. She’s in the form of her life and will attack the 50m freestyle on the last night of the swimming program after having swam the 100m relay on the first night (July 27) and the 100m individual freestyle on July 31.
19:12 (03:12 AEST Monday) 4x100m medley relay men
Based on form at the trials the team would be Isaac Cooper backstroke, Sam Williamson breaststroke, Matt Temple butterfly and Kyle Chalmers freestyle. But selections will depend on results both within the Australian team and across the program over the past eight days.
19:35 (03:35 AEST Monday) 4x100m medley relay women
Mollie O’Callaghan and Kaylee McKeown should be back in action in the final event on the final night. Who they’ll be joined by will be determined by results from the previous eight days of competition.
Louise Evans is an award-winning journalist who has worked around Australia and the world as a reporter, foreign correspondent, editor and media executive for media platforms including The Sydney Morning Herald (eight years), The Australian (11 years) and Australian Associated Press (six years in London, Beijing and Sydney).
A women sports’ pioneer, Louise was the first female sports journalist employed by The Sydney Morning Herald and the first female sports editor at The Australian. Louise went on to work at six Olympic Games, six Commonwealth Games and numerous world sporting championships and grand slam tennis events.
Louise is the Founding Editor of AAP FactCheck, the Creator of #WISPAA – Women in Sport Photo Action Awards and national touring Exhibition and the author and producer of the Passage to Pusan book, documentary and exhibition.
In 2019 she was awarded the Order of Australia Medal (OAM) Queen’s Honour for services to the media and sport and named an Australian Financial Review Top 100 Woman of Influence for services to the arts, culture and sport.
In 2020 she won a NSW Volunteer of the Year Award plus the NSW Government Community Service Award for her women-in-sport advocacy work.
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